Written by Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombian inflation in November is expected to reach 0.20% compared to the same month last year, mostly due to changing food prices, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday, which also saw end-of-year expectations lowered.
Estimates of 20 analysts for inflation in November ranged from 0.14% to 0.29%.
If the median estimate is met, consumer price increases in November would come in below the 0.47% acceleration seen in the same month in 2023.
However, it will be higher than in October, when inflation surprised by deflation by 0.13%.
“We expect a rebound in food inflation, following the contraction the sector showed in previous months,” Bancolombia (NYSE:) said in a note.
“The index would keep services inflation high, while the celebration of seasonal events (such as Black Friday and the Bogotá car show) would allow for another low recording of inflation in goods, and the development of electricity prices would still lead to a lower recording of these people.” The note added.
If the poll average is met, Colombia’s inflation rate for the 12 months to November 30 would be 5.13%, lower than 5.41% at the end of October, but still above the central bank’s target of 3%.
State statistics agency DANE will publish the November inflation rate on December 6.
Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2025 fell to 5.10%, down from 5.51% in last month’s survey and below the central bank’s technical team’s forecast of 5.3%.
For 2025, inflation expectations fell marginally to 3.80%, compared to 3.81% previously. Forecasts for 2026 now see inflation closing at 3.20%, down from 3.30% previously.
